Kennedy’s Exit: A Game-Changer for Trump’s Campaign

United States: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might drop out of the 2024 presidential race soon. His campaign has been full of strange news, like claims that a worm ate part of his brain and that he was linked to a bear carcass found in Central Park in 2014.

Background and Shift in Campaign

As reported by Vox, Kennedy, who is known for his work as an environmental lawyer, had been spreading conspiracy theories about medicine. He ran against President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary but switched to an independent run in October 2023. Now, he might support former President Donald Trump and hopes to be Trump’s health secretary if Trump wins.

Challenges and Polling Numbers

He was considered by many as a Trump-spoiler because of his link to the Democratic Kennedy political family as well because of his anti-elite, anti-vaccine stand that is dear to a section of the Republican base. He was in the ballpark of 10% nationally through much of 2024 and even higher in some state polls particularly those in the swing states.

But he had a difficult time of fundraising to be on the ballots across many states; though his campaign claims that he has enough petitions to do so in all the states apart from Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island, and Wyoming. After Harris become the Democratic nominee, Wolfe seemed to have less influence over voters who disliked Biden. His poll numbers therefore fossilized at below 5 percent as a result.

Impact on Trump’s Campaign

Consequently, giving Kennedy’s lacklustre national polls, he is way more likely to assist Trump than hurt him, the man with whom he has grown rather chummy in the last couple of months. Trump doesn’t necessarily need to attract a lot of Kennedy’s potential electorate in order to swing the state: if the margin is as tight as it was in the 2020 election, the additional one or two percent which could be provided by Kennedy’s change in opinion will suffice.

Kennedy’s exit may help Trump- possibly where it matters the most:

Trump probably has the most to gain from the Kennedy dropping out and Kennedy has increasingly endeared himself to Republican voters while struggling to get the same support among Democrats and the independents and the polls conducted in the recent months including since the Biden dropped out of the race suggest that Trump would pick up more of the Kennedy’s supporters and any margin would likely be very small and potentially significant.

Republicans tend to almost see Kennedy more favourably than Democrats and those with the favourable views towards him tend to have more favourable opinions of Trump than of the Harris.